After a lot of consideration, I have come to a conclusion regarding the war in Ukraine.
It is time for the West to join forces with the Ukrainian defenders and defeat ALL Russian miliary units in Ukraine. That includes the previously annexed Crimea too.
”War is merely the continuation of politics by other means” (von Clausewitz)
Let me explain.
Russia is conducting an imperialistic, expansionistic and fascist war of extermination against the people and nation of Ukraine. Russia is also conducting a war against the core of the rule based international system. And an economic/energy war against EU member states.
The only correct moral obligation of the West is to use all necessary military means to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
If we examine von Clausewitz trinity, we will find logic in going to war against Russian forces in Ukraine.
First and foremost, political reasons. The Russian war has created an unbearable economic burden on the European people, if you look at the cost of energy, inflation, food prices etc. All theese factors are largely affected by the Russian war in Ukraine.
We should have a passion to save the Ukrainian people from genocide and extermination as a nation. Putin is closer to Hitler than any other current or historical leader of a country. Therefore, we must feel an obligation to meet this agression as quickly as possible. I’m confident that the population of the West would prefer a quick defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine, within a year, than a long war of attrition that could take years or even decades.
The unique chance in this is that the Russian military forces have performed badly, and the Russian possibility to mobilize troops of a high standard regarding personnel and equipment is very low. Even if Russia would mobilize its reserves, they wouldn’t have the capability to equip the troops to a level, that would have a chance against the Ukrainian and Western military forces.
The problem with going to war against Russia in Ukraine is that the Western political leaders haven’t understood that they are facing a Hitler type of leader in Putin. Therefor they lack the insight to go to war early. The war will come, but way to late and with a lot of Ukrainian casualties. You could say that the current leaders of the West lack the moral fibre to decide that they have to go to war now.
The people of the West are spoiled, and can’t really comprehend that it’s time for war. They’re used to the comforts of life and haven’t really understood that after the Ukrainians, they might be the next target of Russian military actions.
Regarding the military forces of the West, it’s quite clear, that they have enough with capabilities and experience to defeat all Russian forces in Ukraine. The only improvements must be in logistics and war time production of ammunition and other expendables.
What about WW3 and Russian nukes? Wouldn’t we be doomed to destruction?
NO, nuclear weapons are a political weapons.
Remember that the Soviet Union, and Russia, has had political leaders who were at times gravely alcoholic or had signs of dementia. So no historical leader in Soviet Union or Russia ended the world with strategic nuclear weapons. Why not? Probably because there are safeguards against a single person launching strategic weapons, even in Russia. So the end of the world will not come.
What about tactical nuclear weapons? Yes, the safeguards of launching tactical nuclear weapons are possibly within the powers for the president of Russia to decide by himself.
The problem for Russians to use tactical nuclear weapons are that they have to have a target. Which we don’t need to give them. Regarding the threat to the nation of Russia, that could be dealt with a clearly stated ROE for Western military forces.
Firstly the ROE. Western troops will ONLY target Russian troops within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. That includes ALL the occupied territories.
Secondly, all targets outside of Ukraine proper can be targeted by Ukrainian troops at their discretion. Weapons that have such capabilities may be provided by the West.
Thirdly, the Western support will be in the form of a no fly zone over Ukraine proper and Western air forces would launch air to air and air to ground operations within the borders of Ukraine. Logistical support from the West will be provided to the military forces of Ukraine. As you know, it’s very hard to nuke air forces out of the sky. This would ensure air dominance for the West and Ukrainian forces.
Russian ground forces and naval forces within Ukraine would be quickly defeated by the air forces of the West and the targeting support provided to the Ukrainians.
What IF Russia would use a single or a few tactical nuclear weapons to show that they mean business? Well, if that happens, then I would guess that Russia would become such a pariah state in the international community, that no state would like to have to do anything with Russia, with the possible exception of North Korea and Iran.
Also, in order to eliminate the different Russian intelligence operations in the West, with their hit squads and private military companies such as the Wagner group, we must act decisively. I propose that all such Russian entities should be designated as state sponsored terrorist groups. With free targeting of them for Western military and intelligence agencies. Open season for Wagner group.
Would Putin use strategic nuclear weapons against the West? No, because he knows that the West would devastate the large cities of Russia. Also, in essence, he’s a thief, a maffia guy where he’s the top rooster. Most of the loot that Putin and his associates have stolen from the Russian people are invested in the West in the form of property and money in Euros and USD. Why would you bomb the bank that holds your wealth and money?
Couldn’t we wait with the war for a couple of years?
No, because there is not an unlimited supply of Ukrainian forces. That nation has to be saved. Also, the economical burden for the people of the West can’t be upheld for a long time. The political will to sell out Ukraine will increase with time, even if it means only a short time of peace before the next Russian war of annexation. Next time it will be Moldova and all of Georgia. And what will be next? Who knows? Finland? The Baltic states? Parts of Poland, Bulgaria and Romania?
It’s time now to show the people under Putin that they have to oust him from power and come to their senses regaring their imperialistic ambitions.
And it’s really time for the leaders of West to realize that there will not be any better time to tame the Russian bear than now. Later, it will be too late…..
Also, the determination of the West in this war could deter future expansionistic wars, such as China-Taiwan or other wars in the Middle East or Africa.
I think that president Zelensky embodies von Clausewitzs’ quote; ”Boldness governed by superior intellect is the mark of a hero.”
Our Western leaders have to be heroes too, not cowards.