Now, everybody are looking at the magicians hand in Eastern Ukraine. Luhansk and Donbass and the possibility of further invasion by Russian troops into the rest of the Oblasts of Luhansk and Donbass that are in Ukrainian control.
Putin is doing the same thing as a magician. You’re looking into the hand that the magician want you to focus on. At the same time, you should ask, where is the other hand and what is it doing?
One thing is sure, Putin can count, and know his numbers. So it is possible that the Oblasts are a deception/maskirovka due to relatively even forces on both sides.
So, what could the other hand do, while we’re looking the wrong way?
Imagine now that the Russian forces would invade down on the West side of Kyiv in order to close the gap between Belarus and Transnistria in Moldova. At the same thing, block the Black Sea and Sea of Azov for maritime traffic to and from Ukraine. S-300 and S-400 AD deployed along the Western flank.
This would in all practical terms deny sea, naval and land support to Ukraine from the rest of the world. The distance to close the gap would be about 250-300 km for the Russian forces. That means no replenishment of supplies and of course, no reinforcements for the Ukrainians. At the same time, if Ukrainian forces would deploy to their West flank, the East flank would be overrun by the Russian forces in Luhansk and Donbass.
How long would it take for Putin to install a puppet regime, conduct a referendum and alas, they would be ”independent”, but rely on Putins goodwill for their powers.
The Western front can’t be defended by the Ukrainian forces at the same time, when they’re tied up in the East.
So, who should cover the West? I have my opinion clear, it should be done by the US, EU and NATO, in order to give the Ukrainians a fair fight in the East.
That concludes my analysis of the current situation.